Importers in the United States are currently paying an effective average tariff rate of 21% on all containerized imports, a significant reduction from the peak rate earlier this year. According to a report by Maersk, the world’s second-largest ocean line, this rate is less than half of the 54% peak average experienced shortly after April 2. The reduction comes amid a 90-day pause in the escalating tariff dispute between the U.S. and China, which began on April 9 and is set to end on July 9.
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Despite the pause, trade barriers remain a concern, particularly between the U.S. and China, as long-term trade agreements are still under negotiation. The uncertainty has led to a strategic shift among U.S. companies, especially in the apparel and fashion sectors, which have reduced their dependency on Chinese manufacturing to single-digit percentages. However, other sectors like home improvement continue to rely heavily on Chinese production. This strategic move is seen as a long-term effort to strengthen supply chain resilience amid geopolitical tensions.
Maersk highlighted a sharp decline in ocean container rates from China to U.S. West Coast ports due to weaker demand, following an initial surge as operators worked to restore vessel capacity during the tariff pause. The SONAR Inbound Ocean TEU Volume Index as of July 3 stood at 2307.46, down from a high of 2693.35 in June 2021, indicating fluctuating demand. Global container demand saw a 6.1% growth in the first quarter, consistent with previous quarters, but Maersk anticipates significant volatility in the second quarter due to tariff announcements. The company projects global container demand to range from -1% to 4% through 2025. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East continue to pose a security risk in the Red Sea-Suez Canal region.
Maersk’s Gemini services, in collaboration with Hapag-Lloyd, achieved a schedule reliability of 90.9% in May, surpassing its forecast of 90%. This level of reliability is crucial as the industry navigates through these turbulent times.